Brexit Negotiations Kick Off Amid Turmoil

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What's going on?

Formal Brexit negotiations between Britain and the European Union (EU) begin on Monday and the British governments priorities appear unclear in the wake of the recent election.

What does this mean?

On Sunday, Britains finance minister (the so-called Chancellor of the Exchequer) said that Britain will be leaving the single market, which is the existing EU free trade agreement, while also saying that one priority is to maintain the free movement of goods between Britain and the EU.


He envisages a new trade agreement (what that will look like is unclear at this stage). It would, most likely, follow a transitional agreement that aims to limit the disruption for businesses.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: There is no clear-cut line between a hard and a soft Brexit.

Generally speaking, a soft Brexit is seen as one that prioritizes maintaining a free trade agreement with the EU (and perhaps keeping current immigration rules in place), while a hard Brexit is seen as more willing to cut ties with the EU (particularly with regards to immigration). But there is also a lot of grey area to these labels. As this process unfolds, it will be important to delve deeper than the superficial description offered by the soft versus hard rhetoric.


For markets: The economy is vulnerable among this political uncertainty.

The recent election was intended to solidify Prime Minister Theresa Mays political majority and give her a firmer footing on which to negotiate a Brexit deal. Instead, it weakened her politically and her political future is now in doubt. As a result, investors arent sure who will really lead the upcoming Brexit negotiations. The negotiations were always going to be complex, but the current political upheaval ratchets up the uncertainty even more. Thats likely to cause less investment by businesses in Britain than there would otherwise be, which threatens the economy and, by extension, UK-focused businesses.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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