Dry Spell

Image source: Scharfsinn - Shutterstock

What's going on?

The price of oil hit a three-year high earlier this week, as the tap of dusky earth-juice starts to run dry.

What does this mean?

There are a couple of reasons the supply of oil is so low: governments and companies havent been investing enough in production, while worldwide demand has been going through the roof. But it all came to a head on Monday when the price of a barrel of oil which has already risen 50% this year hit $80. And while the slippery elixir is still cheaper as a fuel than natural gas, that could cause problems of its own: rising gas prices might encourage energy producers to make the switch to oil, pushing demand even higher so much so that Goldman Sachs reckons its price will hit $90 a barrel by the end of the year.

Why should I care?

For markets: OPEC+ might step in.
OPEC+ the group of major oil-producing countries and their allies has already been upping production by 400,000 barrels a day in an effort to boost supply. But since that doesnt seem to have been enough to keep prices down either, its meeting next week to decide whether to start pumping out even more. BP and Shell cant be too happy to hear that: a supply surge might put an end to the rally in their stock prices, which have climbed almost 15% in the last month.

The bigger picture: Coal is hot stuff again.
Europes electricity producers are taking a different approach: theyre switching from natural gas to coal. Greener energy isnt an option, after all, since low wind speeds in the region have left them wanting. That doesnt bode well for Europe meeting its emission goals, nor is it a good look if it wants to pitch a more ambitious climate deal to other world leaders later this year.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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