Economic Slo-Mo

World Bank expected to rewrite its growth forecast

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What's going on?

The World Bank warned that its June forecast global economic growth of 2.6% this year compared to last might prove too optimistic. So much for slow and steady wins the race…

What does this mean?

The trifecta of reasons for its dour outlook shouldnt come as a much of a surprise to economists, investors, or Finimizers. One: British businesses appear to have postponed some investment until theres clarity on Brexit, weighing on growth. Two: the German economy is shrinking, which may well drag the rest of the eurozone into recessionary doldrums. And thats partly due to three the ongoing US-China trade war with the US.

But you know what they say: misery loves company. So the World Banks heart will be all aflutter next week when the International Monetary Fund (a sort of bank for countries) publishes its own updated economic forecasts probably slashing its predictions.

Why should I care?

For you personally: Nothing but mood music.
Large institutions like the World Bank arent renowned for being quick to make fresh economic predictions. By the time the World Bank updates its estimates, investors usually have a handle on the state of the global economy thanks to official data releases and company earnings reports. Still, these forecasts often guide companies in their own predictions. Theyre worth keeping an eye on, then, to see how the various goings-on drive the bigger economic picture.

For markets: In a slowdown, bonds pep up.
Its harder for companies to grow their profits when economies are slowing or shrinking. So rather than owning shares that might fall in value, investors typically buy bonds that should pay investors whatever the weather. Bond investors were afforded a refreshing option this week: PepsiCo sold $1 billion worth of green bonds thatll be used for things like improving waste-water management. Investors gulped them down: Pepsi raised more than it hoped at a lower interest rate than expected.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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