European Job Situation Looking Rosier

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What's going on?

In May, the unemployment rate in the eurozone (i.e. the countries that use the euro as their currency) fell to its lowest level since July 2011 its now down to 10.1%. But thats still more than double the rate in the US. Also, weaker countries in Europe are doing a lot worse than the average.

What does this mean?

Europes economy seems to be undergoing a moderate improvement. First quarter growth was strong and, while the second quarter isnt expected to be as strong, there have been enough positive economic data releases to suggest that it too will be encouraging. May was the third consecutive month of a fall in the unemployment rate so, that adds to the positive sentiment. Of course, the elephant in the room is the uncertainty created by Britains vote to leave the European Union and thats expected to dent the economy at least somewhat over the coming months. Its unclear how big the dent will be and for how long it will persist.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The employment situations differ greatly between European countries. In Germany, the unemployment rate is 4.2% but in Spain its nearly 20%. The disparity is going down (Spains unemployment rate has improved significantly in the past year, for example) but, obviously, theres still quite a large gap. So the average, in many respects, isnt really a good reflection of reality.

For you personally: In theory, unemployment first comes down and then wages start going up. In the US, wages are rising at their highest rate since the financial crisis (which, by the way, isnt saying much: wage growth is still well below the historical average). Thats partly because the US unemployment rate is so low (4.1%). When there are fewer spare workers available, the firms have to pay more in order to attract employees. Looking at Europe as a whole, thats not happening yet as 10% is still quite a high unemployment rate.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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