Europes Central Bank Sits Back And Observes

ECB

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What's going on?

Lets wait and see is, essentially, what the European Central Bank (ECB) said at its meeting on Thursday. As many had expected, ECB President Draghi wants to observe if the ECBs recently enacted policies will have the desired impact before taking any further action.

What does this mean?

So far, the ECBs recent actions appear to be helping economic growth. Draghi said the eurozone recovery is likely to continue this year, albeit not at the same strong pace experienced in the first quarter of this year.

Yet despite recent positive developments, growth remains at a historically low level and Draghi emphasized, once again, that if the governments of eurozone countries made some structural reforms (for example, making it easier to hire and fire workers), then the ECBs policies would have a greater chance of success. Such governmental measures, in his view, would encourage economic activity (i.e. companies often shy away from hiring workers when they know it will cost a lot to let go of them).

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The euro has weakened quite a bit versus the dollar lately. While the ECB wants to wait and see how things develop, the opposite might be occurring in the US where the chances of an interest rate increase this summer have risen meaningfully [link prev] (partly because the US economy is improving and inflation there is picking up significantly). And thats why the Euro has weakened almost 5% versus the dollar in the past month (click here for an explanation of how low interest rates decrease the value of currencies).

For you personally: Things are getting better in Europe just very slowly. The ECBs economists increased their estimate of the eurozones 2016 economic growth. At 1.6%, their forecast is now closer to the 2%-ish level that the US has grown at in the past few years. You might have noticed it getting just a bit easier to find a job or to get that raise (if youre European). Now, according to Draghi, its up to individual governments to really get the (economic) party started.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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