Exports Fan

Eurozone manufacturing is good in November

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What's going on?

A key survey of eurozone activity released on Friday showed the blocs export-driven manufacturing sector though still shrinking ticked up in November. Go team!

What does this mean?

The promising data for the eurozones manufacturing sector, touch wood, raised hopes that the worst of the regions recent industrial slump may finally be over. But the bloc still has a rival to boo off the field: services activity which tracks other industries such as banking, communications, and retail declined in November and is now on the verge of contraction. Thats stoked fears that the recent industrial weakness has simply spread to other parts of the economy.

Its not exactly the trend newly appointed European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde was hoping for. In her first major speech in the role, she called on European governments to better link their countries services sectors with the bloc, in the hopes of making the region more dependent on domestic consumption and less on exports. And given the current state of global trade relations, that could prove a sensible strategy

Why should I care?

For markets: That was close.
The uptick in the blocs manufacturing sector was largely driven by a slower contraction in Germany, where factory activity climbed for the second month in a row. That helped the eurozones largest economy narrowly avoid a technical recession in the third quarter but it didnt do much to silence calls for economy-boosting measures like increased government spending and reduced taxes.

Zooming out: On track for a recession?
A similar survey of the UKs manufacturing and services activity slumped to a three-year low on Friday, as ongoing Brexit uncertainty and renewed jitters ahead of Decembers snap election weighed heavily on companies. Fridays data even led one economist to suggest the UKs economy might decline in the fourth quarter after already contracting in both August and September. Yikes.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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