A Goldilocks Oil Price?

OPEC

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What's going on?

An important group of oil-producing countries met on Thursday and basically did nothing! While some less influential countries, like Venezuela, would really like the oil price to go up, the result of the meeting (arguably) showed how happy many of the worlds biggest exporters of oil, like Saudi Arabia, are with the current state of the oil market.

What does this mean?

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a group of oil-producing countries, led predominantly by Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, that have historically cooperated in order to exert control over the price of oil. After the oil price hit its lowest level in 13 years this February (about $26 per barrel of oil), it has rebounded to nearly $50 due partly to the possibility that OPEC members would agree to cap their production (i.e. limit supply). That hasnt materialized, but the price has recovered.

Why should I care?

For the market: This might be a goldilocks level for major oil producers like Saudi Arabia. At $50/barrel, its unprofitable for many US producers to continue to drill for oil. Thats why oil production in US has declined over the past year or so. Saudi Arabia (and others) have a lower cost of production and, therefore, have been increasing their share of the market. In short (and broadly speaking), American producers are getting squeezed out.

For you personally: The squeeze has really hurt oil-producing regions. From Oklahoma to Norway to Scotland to Alberta, countries and regions have struggled as the low oil price has led to production cuts and job losses. What (some of) OPECs members effectively signalled on Thursday is that theyre happy with oil at this price and, without a price rebound, there likely wont be many jobs returning to those regions where the cost of production is relatively high.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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