Greek Tragedy On The Horizon?

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What's going on?

Greece came very close to not being able to repay its debts in 2015, which could have thrown the eurozone into a serious crisis. Instead, it received a bailout from other eurozone countries. Well, the drama is flaring up again

What does this mean?

Greeces bailout is structured in multiple payments, and to obtain each payment, Greece must satisfy certain conditions. This can create an issue when bailout inspectors come to certify that Greece is holding up its end of the bargain (e.g. by putting caps on some forms of state spending). Right now, the bailout review process is suspended over disagreements with the Greek government and its unclear when it will get going again.


Also, the eurozone countries that are loaning Greece money have said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must, essentially, bless the overall bailout plan which it hasnt done yet. That means Greece might not get the money its counting on, which could lead to another re-run of this Greek tragedy.

Why should I care?

For markets: Investors are getting more worried about other peripheral eurozone countries.

During previous Greek sagas, one big fear was that Greece could break the eurozone: if the Greek government were to go bankrupt, other countries, like Portugal, could as well. So, as the risk of another Greek crisis rises, investors are selling the bonds of other countries whose governments are still in a relatively precarious financial position.


The bigger picture: At the end of the day, a deal tends to get done.

Negotiations with Greece have been ongoing for more than five years now. In the summer of 2015, things came right down to the wire but a bailout agreement was made. Last year, a similar flare up to the current situation occurred and a deal came through. Although markets seem to think more risk is on the horizon, Greek bond prices would likely be much lower if investors thought a deal was unlikely.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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