Hired Muscles

Image source: Molibdenis, Angelina Bambina, Mega Pixel - Shutterstock, Pontus Wellgraf - Unsplash

What's going on?

Crack out the unitard, because fresh data out Friday showed the global economy working up a sweat in May as activity levels jacked ever higher.

What does this mean?

Monthly business activity surveys ask managers all over the world just how busy theyve been compared to the month before, giving observers a near real-time picture of economic performance. And with lockdowns easing, it seems everyones been rushed off their feet: manufacturing and services activity in both the US and UK not only rose compared to April, but they hit their highest combined level in any month ever (tweet this). The eurozone wasnt far behind, with overall activity increasing in May. And while the regions manufacturing industry remains somewhat hamstrung by supply and labor bottlenecks, the easing of pandemic-related restrictions gave its services industries a major boost.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The economys on steroids.


Manufacturers costs have risen rapidly lately, partly because of shortages of things like microchips, and partly because hiring difficulties could be forcing firms to offer higher wages. That might sound great, but it raises two serious risks: lower company profits (and potentially share prices) and a drop in economic activity. Central banks have their ways of keeping a lid on those rising costs, but the mere whisper of interest rate hikes anytime soon would likely send investors scurrying away from the stock market.



For markets: European stocks or American stonks?


Big investors seem to think European stocks are the place to be right now: theyre set up to outperform their US equivalents thanks to cheaper valuations and stronger earnings growth. But in the long run, analysts agree its tough to ignore Big Tech stocks: consistently high growth from the likes of Apple, Facebook, and Amazon just isnt available in Europe.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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