How Is The US Economy Doing?

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What's going on?

A plethora of US economic data for March and April came out on Wednesday. Well, it wasnt all good news, but there were some reasons to be optimistic that US growth this quarter (April-June) wont be as bad as it was in the first quarter.

What does this mean?

Good news first: services, e.g. everything from restaurant sales to lawyers fees, picked up in April versus previous months. And remember, services account for the majority of economic activity. Factory orders, an indicator of the health of the manufacturing sector, also jumped more than expected.

Now the bad news: according to one report, fewer jobs were created in April than expected. Well know more on Friday when the governments official gauge of employment is released.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Its not all doom and gloom for the US economy. Todays data coupled with yesterdays strong auto sales is moderately encouraging. Also, its important to remember that the weak growth reported for the first quarter was just the first estimate – it could be revised (yes, perhaps even upward – well see). For the past few years, the first quarter has been weak but subsequent quarters have been much stronger. Many fear that this will not be the case this year, but there are (a few) reasons to be optimistic.

For you personally: Have you been slacking off at work? Data on Wednesday showed that productivity fell for a second straight month in April in the US. That means it takes more workers and/or machinery to produce the same amount of stuff – which is the opposite of what should be occurring (better technology is supposed to improve productivity). Its actually good for employment (if more workers are required, then more jobs are created) but bad for companies long-term profits (and, therefore, stock prices in theory at least).

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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