Land Of The Rising Glum

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What's going on?

Things are looking pretty bleak for Japan: data released on Monday showed the countrys economy shrank at its fastest rate in years last quarter.

What does this mean?

The worlds third-largest economy shrank at its fastest rate of decline since 2014, and far quicker than investors were expecting. That acceleration may have something to do with a sales tax that arrived back in October: consumer spending saw an 11% drop in the last three months of 2019, dragging down the Japanese economy as a whole.

This isnt a first for Japan, with a 2014 tax increase having had a similar effect. So the government did take some pre-emptive economy-boosting measures to help cushion the effects. But Mondays data seems to suggest they didnt work and given that Japan’s central bank has already lowered interest rates into negative territory, theres not much it can do either.

Why should I care?

For markets: Japanticlimax.
Even if investors brush off the sales tax hike as a one-off, its not like Japans outlook is particularly bright: the countrys economy is expected to suffer a fresh hit from the coronavirus outbreak. And if that leads its economy to shrink again in the first quarter of 2020, that would put Japan in a recession i.e. two consecutive quarters of economic decline. Investors are starting to get nervous at the thought, which might be why Japanese stocks fell on Monday.

The bigger picture: Tourist trap.
Chinese tourists money has become an important part of the Japanese economy, and there was some good news on that front on Monday, at least. China pledged to implement its own economy-boosting measures to help deal with the economic blow from the coronavirus outbreak, which could include lower taxes and interest rates. That, in turn, should increase Chinese citizens purchasing power at home and abroad.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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