Look Alive

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What's going on?

Fresh data on Tuesday showed that prices of US goods and services rose at their fastest in eight years last month and now investors are nervous the US central bank will pull the plug on economic support altogether.

What does this mean?

The US government stepped up its aid for American taxpayers last month, bringing the nations bank accounts back from the brink with some much-needed stimulus checks. So with more spare cash floating around, its no massive surprise that inflations on the rise: prices ticked up by a higher-than-expected 0.6% in March from the month before, and 2.6% from a year earlier exceeding the Federal Reserves (the Feds) target. Plenty of economists are expecting that figure to hit the 4% mark before long, and if it transforms from one-off spike to spiraling trend, there could be big problems ahead

Why should I care?

For markets: Fed support isnt going anywhere.


The Feds been propping up the prices of stocks and bonds for more than a decade. So the last thing the central bank wants is a repeat of the taper tantrum of 2013, when the slightest hint itd be reducing its support sent waves of panic through markets. Thats also why its now insisting it wont touch interest rates the brakes of the economy until US inflation averages 2% over a sustained period of time, not just a month or two. Those assurances dont seem to have worked, mind you: the possibility of a taper tantrum topped a Bank of America poll of investors biggest worries on Tuesday.



The bigger picture: until it does.


One Fed official did show his hand this week, saying that three-quarters of Americans would need to be vaccinated before the central bank would even think about withdrawing economic support. If nothing else, then, this weeks hold-up of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine could buy inflation-anxious investors a bit more time to safeguard their portfolios.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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