Missed Connections

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What's going on?

Facebook didnt quite connect with the investors in its life on Wednesday: its stock initially fell 6%, despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

What does this mean?

Investors tend to focus on Facebooks number of monthly active users when assessing the social media giants progress, because its those users who are ultimately being sold to advertisers. That number was 8% higher than a year ago, which coupled with increased monetization of each user nudged quarterly ad revenue up by a higher-than-expected 25%. And thanks to Facebooks knack for keeping costs in check for which its fast gaining notoriety among analysts the companys profit beat estimates too.

Why should I care?

For markets: Facebooks next chapter.


Astute investors (heres lookin at you, kid) might not have been too surprised by the positive update: Facebook has beaten analysts fourth-quarter revenue expectations by 2% and profit forecasts by 10% every year since 2015. And that might help explain why investors sold off its shares. The companys fourth-quarter profit was only 1% more than forecast, bucking the historical trend and perhaps falling short of investors more informal expectations (tweet this). Facebook might be hoping a new revenue stream in the form of Instagram Checkout will restore its expectation-busting habits or at least distract investors from its embarrassment-plagued digital currency



The bigger picture: The current chapters not over.


New revenues aside, ads are likely to remain Facebooks bread and butter for some time. And theres gold in them hills: with a US presidential election on the way and Twitter having announced plans to ban political ads, campaigners will likely turn to the book to get their message out. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg who fancies himself the Democratic partys nominee only entered the race a couple of months ago, and has reportedly spent $250 million on ads already.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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