No Chill

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What's going on?

Deutsche Bank reported its highest quarterly profit in nearly a decade on Wednesday, but Germanys biggest bank cant relax just yet

What does this mean?

Theres been a flurry of dealmaking in the last couple of years, but the threat of higher interest rates which drives up the cost of borrowing has helped bring that to a halt. Thats less than ideal for Deutsche Bank, whose revenue in its deal advisory segment fell 28% last quarter compared to the same time last year. Still, it made up for the shortfall elsewhere: its fixed income and currency trading business grew revenue by 15%, as traders took advantage of the recent market volatility. Its interest income from both corporate and private clients rose too, which along with some savvy cost-cutting helped bring up its overall profit by a better-than-expected 18%.

Why should I care?

For markets: Profit beats caution.
Deutsche did warn that the Ukrainian war which is pushing global prices even higher posed a real risk to its growth going forward, as did a weakening global economy. That might be why
the bank put aside $320 billion last quarter in case customers cant pay back their debts. Thats three times more than it tucked away in the first quarter of 2021, and it warned itll add significantly to that stockpile throughout the year
(tweet this). Investors, though, seemed to favor short-term profit over long-term caution, and they sent its stock down 6% on the news.

Zooming out: Two can play at that game.
No wonder Deutsche Bank is such a Debbie Downer: the bank warned this month that Germany its biggest market would fall into recession if there was a meaningful disruption to Russian gas supplies. And there could well be, given that its been pushing back against Russias demands to pay for its gas in rubles. After all, that principled move just backfired on Poland and Bulgaria: Russias cut them off, sending European gas prices up 20%.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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