What's going on?

The US just can�t move on from its first love: the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said this week that the country�s set to produce more oil in 2023 than it did before the pandemic.

What does this mean?

Between Covid-fueled hardship and a push toward greener energy, America�s oil industry was starting to look like its glory days were behind it. Then the slippery elixir’s price jumped more than 50% last year on the back of resurgent demand, and oil companies were able to start plowing money back into their businesses. America�s producers were no exception, so much so that the EIA � a US organization that tracks industry statistics � now thinks they�ll produce a record 12.4 million barrels a day by 2023. There might be one difference this time around: analysts are expecting smaller producers to drive output, as America�s energy giants prioritize spending their cash on share buybacks and dividend payouts.

Why should I care?

For markets: How to lower inflation.
The extra oil should, all else equal, push the dusky nectar�s price down, with the EIA forecasting a drop in the price of Brent oil ��a key oil benchmark � from $85 today to an average of $75 this year, and $68 next. That should bring down energy prices more widely, which should � given energy�s oversized influence on overall prices � help limit inflation around the world.

The bigger picture: So much for those green ambitions.
The US can�t really complain about the possibility of lower prices, but it mightn�t be particularly happy if higher oil production is responsible. The country�s recently been investing billions into clean energy technology, and it looks like there’s a lot more work to be done: the EIA said it�s expecting American carbon emissions to climb 1.8% this year and 0.5% in 2023.