One-Track Mind

Image source: ChristianChan - Shutterstock

What's going on?

A report from investment bank UBS suggests global investors will only have one thing on their agenda in the second half of the year: stocks with the strongest earnings growth.

What does this mean?

Yields on long-term US government bonds are on the rise, which means returns-hungry investors are more likely to buy into them. That might encourage those investors to make room for them in their portfolios by selling off some relatively risky stocks, which UBS reckons will slow down the months-long rally in global stock markets ultimately leading to lower returns.



Still, UBS says there are still returns to be had. In the near term, those might be found in cheap-looking value stocks whose earnings growth is set to rebound from last years lows. But in the longer term as investors continue their hunt for earnings growth in favor of cheap valuations “growth” stocks should reclaim the number one spot.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: When rates rise, investors shift gears.


Between record-low interest rates and negative government bond yields (adjusting for inflation), investors have been seeking out riskier but higher-returning assets. But as yields and eventually rates rise, money will become more expensive and stocks less attractive no matter what their price (tweet this). Instead, investors will have to shift their focus to companies fundamentals like sales, profit, and cash flow growth and take companies big promises with a pinch of salt if the numbers dont back them up.



For you personally: Think long term.


The current sky-high stock market wont last forever, so youll want to make sure youre investing in companies with earnings growth and, by extension, a share price thatll hold steady for more than just the next couple of quarters. A good way to assess this is to ask yourself if the company is growing its sales faster than the overall industry, or if it has a clear advantage over its competition.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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