What's going on?

Black Friday was the order confirmation email online retailers were looking for: US ecommerce sales reached an all-time record of $7.4 billion � but initial data for retail stores suggested sales fell 6%.

What does this mean?

Black Friday � so named because it�s when retailers would usually become profitable for the year (i.e. �go into the black�) � is one of the calendar�s biggest shopping days. It�s therefore a helpful barometer of the state of the retail sector.


It�s probably no surprise that people preferring to shop online means several traditional retailers lose out. But not everyone�s been felled by Amazon�s growth: retailers focusing on engaging customer experiences (like Target�s Disney Stores) or offering things Amazon can�t (like home improvement firms Home Depot and Lowe�s) are holding their own. But stores that can�t best Amazon on price or products � namely, department stores � are struggling. Case in point: Target�s shares are up 90% this year � while Macy�s shares are down 50%.

Why should I care?

For markets: Money does buy you happiness.

American consumers are more important than they might realize � as businesses have cut investment in the face of trade uncertainty, American consumer spending has propped up the US and, by extension, the entire global economy. With the world so reliant on them, it�s fortunate that consumer confidence is high as the holidays approach. But all eyes are on this Friday�s new consumer confidence reading, which will show whether those spirits are still high.


The bigger picture: Hong Kong orders declined.

The global economy isn�t as reliant on Hong Kong�s consumers. That�s perhaps no bad thing, since fresh data on Monday showed retail sales there plummeted a record 24% in October from the same time last year. That�s largely down to months of protests, which have scared away tourists and shoppers � and bad news for luxury retailers, who�ve become increasingly reliant on Asian markets.