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What's going on?

The eurozones just like the US, only with fewer superheroes and while both economies have stubbornly low inflation, as of Thursday both are keeping key interest rates unchanged.

What does this mean?

The European Central Bank (ECB to its friends) thinks things are getting better in the eurozone, but the economic outlooks still incredibly uncertain; it therefore left its $1.6 trillion emergency bond-buying program and sub-zero interest rates frozen in place on Thursday. Both help make money cheaper to borrow and should therefore encourage more spending, in turn boosting the prices of goods and services (a.k.a. inflation). The sames true Stateside, only the US central bank is committed to unlimited bond buying alongside record-low rates. Despite both economies reopening, however, business and consumer spending has failed to push inflation back to target levels.

Why should I care?

For markets: With great power


Lowering rates further seems an obvious way to boost inflation. But if the last decades any guide, theres no guarantee thatd actually work and the unintended consequences could cause more harm than good (tweet this). Lower rates hurt commercial banks profits and if theyre struggling then theyll be less forthcoming with loans for struggling businesses. The ECBs low-rate-and-wait approach appears to tacitly echo the US Federal Reserves new plan: its happy to let inflation eventually overshoot its target so long as it averages 2% over time the generally accepted indication of stable price growth.



The bigger picture: Greenback Goblins.


The flip side of the recently weakening US dollar is the euros relative strength. That helps eurozone businesses cash go further abroad, sure particularly in the US, where the euros value in dollars exceeded $1.20 last week for the first time since 2018. But rising imports usually leads to less demand for local products, which could hamper eurozone inflation further.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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