Peakaboo

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What's going on?

Data out on Tuesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, and there are signs it might all be downhill from here.

What does this mean?

There are a cocktail of factors behind Americas rising prices this year: pandemic-related bottlenecks, a sudden rebound in demand, and ongoing government support programs that have more-or-less constantly been pumping cash into the economy. All told, its driven consumer prices 5.3% higher in August than the same time last year.

But heres the thing: that rise is down from Julys 13-year high of 5.4%, while the core inflation measure which leaves out more unstable food and energy prices eased slightly as well. And thats a sure(ish) indication that those price rises are finally calming down a bit.

Why should I care?

For markets: Told you so.
This news will come as a relief to the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), which has maintained for a while that high inflation will fizzle out and has, in turn, stuck to its guns on leaving interest rates where they are. And now that the Feds decision looks like its been vindicated, investors worried about the damage higher rates could do to stocks can breathe a little easier too.

The bigger picture: This could still backfire.
Developed countries around the world are feeling the pinch of inflation right now, but the US is getting squeezed most of all. Its not hard to see why: the US government flooded the country with dollars when it rolled out rescue packages worth 25% of its economy. Thats helped it recover more quickly than most, sure, but it could also mean the US is battling inflation for a lot longer than its rivals are.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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