Perfect Storm

European PMIs look better than expected

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What's going on?

Fresh data out on Thursday showed the eurozone economy was more active than economists had anticipated in August. But every silver lining has a cloud and German manufacturing sure looks pretty bleak right now.

What does this mean?

Augusts activity survey which asks private company executives in the eurozone how busy theyve been that month revealed that activity in the blocs services sector (retail, hospitality, and so on) was up from July. Manufacturing activity, meanwhile, slowed its decline in August. And France was a particularly bright spot: activity rose across the board, defying predictions of a slowdown.

Then there was Germany. With economic activity that was higher than expected, the countrys update wasnt all doom and gloom. But its all-important manufacturing industry is still shrinking, and investors can hear the telltale rumblings of a storm rolling in. And when it rains, it pours.

Why should I care?

For markets: The winds wont change Europes course.
The eurozone economy is in better shape than investors expected, which led some to buy up the euro on Thursday. But cautious investors might’ve learned lessons from earlier in the year: survey data had suggested the eurozone economy was on course for shrinkage in the first quarter, only for the region to report better-than-expected growth. What company bigwigs say theyre doing doesnt always reflect the day-to-day, so most investors still expect an economy-boosting eurozone interest rate cut in September.

Zooming out: Will investors abandon a syncing ship?
Global synchronization drove the investments in Japans government pension pot to a loss late last year. And Japans economy is still in sync with the eurozone, at least. Data out on Thursday showed Japanese manufacturing activity fell in August for the fourth month in a row (a strong yen may be partly to blame, making its exports appear expensive). More silver linings, however: the countrys services sector grew, offsetting the decline in manufacturing.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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