Thanks, But No Thanks

Image source: Shutterstock Warren Price Photography

What's going on?

Data out earlier this week showed a key measure of US inflation rising at its fastest since 1991 last month, so Americans can hardly be blamed for cutting a few corners this Thanksgiving

What does this mean?

The US has had a lot on its plate recently: supply chain disruptions have been pushing up costs for businesses and, in turn, their customers, while labor shortages have continued to drive up wages, which has increased demand for and the prices of a dwindling supply of goods. All in, then, a broad measure of inflation was up 5% last month compared to the same time last year. And even stripping out unstable costs like food and energy, the measure still rose by 4.1% the biggest jump in 20 years.

Why should I care?

For markets: Thanks for the support.
The Federal Reserves (the Feds) plan to reduce its $120 billion bond-buying program by $15 billion a month kicked off this month. But this data has got Deutsche Bank economists speculating that the Fed will double that amount from December onwards in a bid to keep spiraling inflation in check. That would see the support disappear completely by March next year, removing a big source of demand three months earlier than the central bank originally planned. So expect bond prices to keep dropping and yields (which move inversely) to keep climbing from their current lows.

Zooming out: A debt of gratitude.
This Thanksgiving will definitely be one to remember: new analysis from the Financial Times has shown that Americans had to fork out 25% more on average for their typical festive food than they did before the pandemic. And since food prices could keep rising well into next year, economists reckon Thanksgiving 22 might end up being 10-20% pricier still.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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