The Buck Stops Here

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What's going on?

Take a long look at your dividends, income investors, because they could be your last for a while: Goldman Sachs reckons coronavirus support for large companies has put cash payouts at risk.

What does this mean?

In its analysis of major European companies dividends, Goldman concluded that since this years payouts are mostly paid using last years profits, they wouldnt normally be at risk. But given the significant regulatory hurdles for companies that take government aid, as many as a fifth of the eurozones largest companies have paused their payouts. Between those companies and this years fast-falling profit predictions, there are questions over next years dividends too (even if, by Goldmans reckoning, thats already being reflected in stock prices). Things might only start getting interesting again in 2022, when 2021s profits are paid out as dividends. Goldman, for one, thinks there could be an even bigger jump in payouts than investors are currently predicting.

Why should I care?

For markets: Looking after the pennies.


The companies that have canceled their dividends in Europe are primarily banks, travel and leisure brands, and industrial firms. And its not so different across the Atlantic: American investment bank JPMorgan said on Monday itd consider suspending its dividend for the first time ever if the forthcoming recession is as bad as analysts forecast. That might explain why some of Goldmans sector recommendations are focused on industries that tend to be resilient in a downturn, including tech, telecoms, and consumer staples stocks.



The bigger picture: Dividends make the world go round.


Dividends matter to investors of all types: some rely on regular payouts to fund their living costs, while others like insurance companies use them to help cover the costs of claims. Insurers invest the premiums they collect from policies, so theyre likely facing a double whammy: lost income from dividends and potentially big claims from coronavirus-hit customers.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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