The Latin Quarter

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What's going on?

Economic data out on Thursday showed Brazil joining Mexico in narrowly avoiding recession last quarter but growth in Latin America remains elusive.

What does this mean?

US economic growth in the second quarter of the year was revised downwards slightly on Thursday to 2% compared to a year before. But Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, can only dream of such giddy heights. While second-quarter growth came in slightly better than expected at 1%, the country is still feeling the effects of its longest-ever recession, which ended in 2017.

The Mexican economy, meanwhile, didnt grow at all last quarter. That prompted its central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in five years earlier this month and its annual growth forecast to the lowest level since 2009 on Thursday. But things are headed further south further south: recession-racked Argentina is now seeking to delay repayments on $100 billion of debt to avoid defaulting for the ninth time.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Stuck in the middle.
Latin America has been caught in the middle of the recent trade conflict between the US and China which are currently in discussions about, er, reopening discussions. Many of its economies still depend on shipping raw materials overseas and while countries like Chile and Peru cannily saved during the good times, a slowdown in Chinese buying has left Brazil and Argentina exposed. Whats more, 72% of Latin Americas economic growth this millennium was thanks to an expanding labor force. With fertility rates decreasing, growth may yet slow further.

For you personally: Brazil is on fire just not economically.
Overseas investors have yanked $5 billion from Brazils stock exchange this year the most since 2008. While the countrys government is hoping a potential trade deal with the US might help, a recent historic agreement with the European Union is already looking shaky in light of Brazils treatment of the Amazon rainforest a crucial store of planet-warming carbon dioxide.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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