The Nightmare After Christmas

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What's going on?

From Tesco to Marks & Spencer (M&S), Kohls to L Brands, the holiday season didnt go so well and their updates didnt go as planned.

What does this mean?

On Thursday, department store chain Kohls and Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands reported worse-than-expected sales growth over the holidays, leading both to lower their profit forecasts for the year. Bed Bath & Beyond (BB&Y) couldnt escape the malaise either: it reported weak results and jettisoned its earlier profit prediction late on Wednesday.

But the #retailfail extended beyond American shores. UK chain M&S saw a worse-than-expected decline in holiday sales, while grocer Tescos barely grew. The latter in particular will have hurt investors: Tesco represents 1% of the UKs stock market and is globally significant too, with businesses across Europe and (for now) Asia.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Costs, costs, everywhere.
Investors tend to focus on retailers sales growth because its the best indication of a companys profitability. Since traditional retailers have high fixed costs rent, electricity, store staff and so on rising sales tend to boost profit directly. That does, however, make cutting costs more difficult, which means falling sales have a significant negative effect on profit. And thats to say nothing of the additional warehousing costs that ecommerce wannabes take on

For markets: Investors dont pull any punches.
Investors added insult to injury by selling retailers shares: Kohls fell 9%, BB&Y 18%, and M&S 10%. There’s perhaps only one winner: Amazon. Investors in the ecommerce giant will be hoping its record holiday season perhaps partly thanks to last years record US shopping mall vacancies translates into a strong fourth-quarter earnings report later this month. And with more flexible costs than traditional retailers, it very well might.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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