The UKs Economy Is Doing Meh

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What's going on?

The UK economy isnt doing great but isnt doing terribly bad either. It grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2016, which was in line with expectations but lower than the growth of the previous quarter.

What does this mean?

This news signals that the UK is on track to grow less this year than it did last year. Uncertainty as a result of Junes Brexit referendum is being blamed by most economists as a key driver of the weakness (i.e. companies are probably postponing spending money until they have a clearer idea of Britains future relationship with the European Union). But there are also concerns thatthe relatively high value of the pound versus, say, the Euro (remember, a more valuable currency makes it tougher to sell goods overseas) and the somewhat weaker employment situationare also weighing down economic growth.

Why should I care?

For the markets: Markets are pricing in much less of a Brexit risk than they were just a few weeks ago. The pound is close to a 10-week high versus the US dollar as there seems to have been an uptick of support for the Remain campaign. The pound had sold off as a vote for Brexit appeared to be gaining in popularity; this was because its thought that foreign money would leave the UK if it voted to leave the EU, which would put lots of pressure on the value of the pound.

The bigger picture: Still, the UK likely grew faster than the US or eurozone (they report later). The US probably didnt grow even half as much as the UK in the first quarter, while Europes moderate recovery is likely losing momentum. These data points are only initial estimates, so they will almost certainly be revised over the coming months as more detailed information becomes available. But its still the best indication we currently have of the UKs economic performance.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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