Funemployment

Image source: Kari Shea - Unsplash, Steve Collender - Shutterstock, Giphy

What's going on?

Data out on Friday showed that the US economy added way fewer jobs than expected in May, as the pandemic continues to show America exactly whos boss.

What does this mean?

There were 559,000 more US jobs last month than there were in April. Thats not just lower than the 670,000-plus economists were predicting, it fell a long way short of the so-called whisper number the figure investors were expecting of around 800,000 (tweet this).



The US unemployment rate did fall, to be fair from 6.1% to 5.8%. And, significantly, working Americans wages were 2% higher in May than they were a year before, compared to economists projections of 1.6%. Still, even thats a concern: higher-than-expected wage growth could be yet another sign that already-high US inflation risks running out of control.

Why should I care?

For markets: Whats bad for the goose is good for a gander.


Lowball job additions are bad for the economy, even if those in work are being paid more than last year. But this situation could counterintuitively be good for investors. If the US recovery remains tentative, the countrys central bank is unlikely to end its economic support any time soon. And keeping interest rates lower for longer and keeping borrowing cheap would be a boon to the growth stocks in market-dominating sectors like tech.



The bigger picture: America isnt working.


There are still 7.6 million fewer US workers than there were in February 2020, when the country was as close to full employment as its ever been. But many of those lost jobs will never return: the pandemic has pushed plenty of people into early retirement or full-time childcare. In fact, Americas 62% labor force participation is way lower than the 80%-odd average rate in both the UK and the eurozone. Americas crippling opioid epidemic isnt doing that discrepancy any favors either, so solving that crisis could be key to long-term economic prosperity.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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