Wake-Up Call

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What's going on?

The US shouldve known better than to reason with a newly-awakened bear market before it’d enjoyed its economic stimulus: the economy-boosting measures the country announced late on Wednesday were met with investor selling on Thursday.

What does this mean?

The US president proposed three measures: paid leave for ill or quarantined workers and carers, loans for small businesses to help offset lost cash flow, and a penalty-free deferral for certain tax payments ahead of the next corporate tax deadline in April.



The mooted tax cuts for workers and companies were nowhere to be seen, mind you. But analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs think its only a matter of time: if the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, theyve said, it wont be long beforethose cuts are enacted too.

Why should I care?

For markets: The bears are out.


Now that the key US stock market index the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% from its last high, were officially in a bear market. Its partly been caused by investors institutional and retail alike taking money out of funds: these so-called redemptions have forced investment managers to sell off assets so they can return the cash to those asking for it, while some mightve sold more than necessary in anticipation of upcoming redemptions. All of this may have spurred other investors to sell off their holdings too. Some of those investors will now be bracing for a recession, which tends to follow a bear market though exactly when is anyones guess



Zooming out: Drops of opportunity?


Saudi Arabia and Russias oil spat is exacerbating the recent decline in the commoditys price. And with oil firms now cutting their once-sacrosanct dividends for fear of going bust including Apache on Thursday some investors think the already-subsidized energy industry may soon be bailed out by the US government. Those investors, then, have reportedly used exchange-traded funds to buy up groups of oil companies they reckon will benefit from added support.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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