Backseat Driver

Image source: Debby Hudson - Unsplash Banco Central de Chile - Flickr Mega Pixel - Shutterstock

What's going on?

Americas top financial official and the former head of its central bank had a message for her successor on Sunday: higher interest rates could actually be good for the countrys economy.

What does this mean?

Plenty of investors are concerned that the US Federal Reserve might soon start unwinding pandemic-driven economic support measures, including the rock-bottom interest rates that make borrowing super cheap. But the Feds former head honcho now US treasury secretary said in an interview over the weekend that higher interest rates might not be so bad.

After all, the US presidents $4 trillion spending plan should provide a long-term boost to the American economy. And if higher inflation and therefore higher interest rates are the short-term result, it may be a price worth paying. Higher rates would also give the central bank more firepower in the event of an economic slump: it could lower them again to encourage more activity if it needed to.

Why should I care?

For markets: Insider information?
If the current head of the Fed had uttered these comments, wed be witnessing a bond market selloff similar in scale to 2013s taper tantrum. Thankfully, the US treasury secretary holds no sway over the countrys central bank. Still, her knowledge of its inner workings is arguably unparalleled among outsiders, and if the Feds top brass today are thinking along the same lines, investors might be confronted with interest rate rises sooner than expected.

Zooming out: The chips are still down.
One of the biggest questions for the Fed right now is whether high US inflation is a fleeting thing, driven by temporary factors like shortages of the microchips used in many consumer tech products. But that one might not be so temporary after all: one of the worlds biggest electronics manufacturers warned on Sunday that the global undersupply could last until 2023.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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