Damp Squib

Image source: Rynio Productions - Shutterstock

What's going on?

The Chinese government announced over the weekend that theyre doing all they can to make commodities recent hot streak fizzle out.

What does this mean?

Between strong demand on the back of the global economic recovery and supply issues on the back of that strong demand, commodity prices have hit their highest levels in almost a decade. And thats not cool with China, which is by far the biggest consumer of raw materials in the world.



The government, then, is in damage control mode. It summoned the top execs from the countrys metal producers to a meeting on Sunday, and made three demands of them: no colluding with one another to manipulate prices, no spreading misinformation about levels of supply and demand, and no hoarding materials to drive up prices. Investors, at least, got the message loud and clear: prices of commodities including iron ore, aluminium, and steel initially dropped on Monday.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Who isnt afraid of inflation?


Theres a reason Chinas so nervous. If the prices of commodities climb too high, itll push up manufacturers costs and, in turn, encourage them to charge customers more for the finished products. That climb in prices i.e. inflation could put customers off spending their money, which would be bad news for economic activity and, in the longer term, Chinas economic growth.



For markets: Long live the underdog.


Commodity prices might be surging, but theyre still trading at their biggest discount to stocks on record. At the same time, theyre actually well-positioned to close that gap and overtake their higher-profile counterparts. See, if inflation edges up too high, too quickly, the worlds central banks might hike interest rates in a bid to cool down the economy. And since stocks are vulnerable to higher interest rates, investors could ditch them in favor of commodities and looking at the recent tech sell-off, that might already have started happening.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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