Ripple Effects

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What's going on?

Manufacturing activity slumped to a record low in China as coronavirus hobbled the nations factories and data from the rest of the world showed signs that the economic impact, like the outbreak itself, is continuing to spread.

What does this mean?

Data out on Monday showed Chinas manufacturing activity fell to the lowest level last month since the survey began. It is, after all, pretty difficult to run a factory if half your employees are sick or staying home to avoid infection.

But the consequences arent just domestic. China is the worlds second-largest economy, not to mention more integrated than ever in global supply chains. In fact, the countrys responsible for producing about 65% of components for the worlds technology companies, and assembling 80% of all electronic products. And that means the slowdown is being felt elsewhere too: separate reports indicated that European output was decidedly mixed, and that US manufacturing unexpectedly stagnated in February.

Why should I care?

For markets: Wait and see.
Markets started reacting to coronavirus well before this data: investors, worried about the outbreaks effect on the economy, sold stocks all last week and hunted out safer assets like US government bonds. Over the coming weeks theyll continue to scour economic data for clues on how the global economys holding up, but it can take weeks or even months for generally backward-looking stats like factory output to catch up with the real-world situation.

The bigger picture: Economic eccentricity.
Such a sudden and severe disruption to global manufacturing is causing some downright weird data. Take, for example, Chinas inability to supply American customers with goods, which pushed up so-called supplier delivery times from 52 to 58 days. Thats normally a positive sign for the economy, since it suggests demand is outpacing supply. This time around, however, it just goes to show how disruptive efforts to control the virus have been on supply chains.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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