There Could Be A Soft(er) Brexit After All

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What's going on?

The Labour Party, Britains official opposition party, has shifted its stance and now supports the UK staying in the Single Market (at least for a transitional period). This could have big implications for the British economy

What does this mean?

The Single Market is a set of rules that guarantee the free movement of goods, capital, services and labor within the European Union (EU). Staying in it would mean British businesses could continue to operate without much immediate disruption, but it could also delay tough decisions on Britains future arrangement with the EU (arguably extending the uncertainty for businesses and making them less likely to spend money now on expanding their operations).

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: The rest of Europe is watching and could be influenced either way.

The Labour Partys new position could embolden members of the ruling Conservative Party to push their own party to agree to a softer Brexit. However it occurs, if Britain is able to negotiate a relatively painless exit from the EU, anti-EU sentiment in other EU countries could be emboldened: citizens in other countries may be more inclined to push for their own EU exit (which would have implications for their own economies and, likely, European markets as a whole).


For you personally: The UK could see fewer job losses in the near term, but less wage growth as well.

A softer Brexit process may mean fewer British jobs relocating to Europe than a hard Brexit would entail (e.g. banks would likely move fewer jobs to Dublin or Frankfurt if open access to the European market was maintained). This could limit British job losses and soften Brexits near-term hit to economic growth. However, with fewer controls on immigration, British workers would continue to compete with other European workers in the UK, which means there could be less pressure on wages to rise. Its important to note that it remains difficult to forecast specific implications of the Brexit process, in part because the final outcome remains so unclear.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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