Just The Tip

Image source: Kwangmoozaa, Tom Saga - Shutterstock, Andrew "Donovan" Valdivia @donovan_valdivia - Unsplash

What's going on?

The US cant stop teasing investors with the prospect of an economic boom: data out on Friday showed the US economy added 379,000 jobs in February almost double the 200,000 economists were predicting (tweet this).

What does this mean?

The unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in January to 6.2% last month, and unlike previous months, the participation rate the proportion of people who are either working or seeking employment didnt drop. In other words, there were more people who joined the workforce than there were people who gave up looking for work altogether.



One number economists are paying extra-close attention to is average hourly earnings, which was only marginally higher in February than it was in January. That suggests theres still room for plenty of jobs to be added before businesses have to start hiking wages to tempt in new applicants. Makes sense: the US is still some 9.5 million jobs short of where it was before the pandemic landed.

Why should I care?

For markets: The US is on stronger footing.


Employment reports give an almost real-time insight into how the economy is doing, and last weeks update bodes well. Now that hiring seems to be back on track, therell be more people working and therefore able to spend when a vaccinated America fully reopens for business. That should be good for economically sensitive cyclical stocks in particular, some of which rose on Friday.



The bigger picture: Just the idea of higher rates is enough to knock stocks.


An influx of newly employed workers with a bit more cash to burn seems to have investors worried that inflation is set to climb. And while the US Federal Reserve has said interest rates wont change for a while yet, the prospect they will was enough to push investors to sell off their stocks on Friday.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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