Puff Piece

Image source: Ruvim Noga @ruvimnogaphoto - Unsplash

What's going on?

British American Tobacco (BAT) announced an upbeat forecast for the rest of the year on Tuesday, and investors were left breathless.

What does this mean?

If you think youve been seeing more longboard-riding startup execs leaving trails of vape smoke in their wake, youre not imagining it: BAT added a record 1.4 million new customers of its non-burning products last quarter, bringing the total to 15 million (tweet this). And of all its brands, Vuse has been the standout: the vaping mainstay now boasts a market share of more than 30% in five of the worlds biggest vaping markets.

The upbeat results encouraged BAT to bump up its sales growth forecast for the rest of the year, but it left its profit forecast where it was. That might be because the companys investing heavily in its non-burning products business in an effort to grow sales, and its admitted that the segment wont become profitable till 2025.

Why should I care?

The bigger picture: Smokings not cool anymore.
Tobacco stocks have been feeling the heat lately, partly because traditional cigarette businesses which still make up the bulk of their sales are increasingly at risk of tighter regulation. And its true that smoking rates have been falling around the world, with cigarette sales expected to fall by 3% this year. Not everywhere, mind you: Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam all have flimsier anti-smoking rules, which might be why BAT singled them out on Tuesday as key areas for growth.

For markets: Nice-to-haves are out, must-haves are in.
Then again, one investment research group thinks now might actually be the perfect time to buy tobacco stocks. See, the economic recovery is transitioning from early-cycle to mid-cycle. Thats when growth rates start to peak, and when consumer staples stocks like tobacco should outperform consumer discretionary stocks, like fashion. Thats down to their more stable earnings potential, and, as an added bonus, how much cheaper they currently look.

Originally posted as part of the Finimize daily email.

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